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The media quotes nonstop any poll that shows Trump losing by double digits. But I never heard a word about the Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll from this week that showed Trump beating Biden 46% to 45% and winning almost all battleground states by a healthy margin. That poll didn't oversample Democrats by a mile (as most other polls do) and polled only likely voters. Likely voters in battleground states are all that matter.
Or the Poll Watch poll released this week that shows Trump winning nationally, in battleground states and in the Electoral College. Trump dominates on the two issues that matter to most Americans: the economy and law and order.
Or have you heard that in the RealClearPolitics battleground average, Trump is slightly ahead of where he was at this time in 2016 (on his way to a victory over Hillary Clinton)?
Most importantly, a new Gallup poll reports 56% of Americans say they are better off now under Trump than they were four years ago under then-President Barack Obama and then-Vice President Joe Biden. Every expert knows what clinches elections -- "It's the economy, stupid." A solid majority of Americans feel better off today than four years ago, despite COVID-19. You think they're voting for Biden? By the way, that 56% is the highest number in the history of Gallup asking, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" Ronald Reagan got 44% in the Gallup poll and won the election in a landslide. Trump is at 56%.
If Americans aren't yet convinced Trump is great for the economy, on Oct. 29, five days before the election, the third-quarter gross domestic product will be released. The Atlanta Fed estimates it will be 34.6% economic growth, the highest in the history of America -- since 1776.
Still not convinced? Since primaries were born in 1912, no incumbent has ever lost the general election after receiving 75% or more of the votes from their party in the primaries. Trump received 94% of all cast in the 2020 Republican primaries.
One more factor: Because of fear of COVID-19, Team Biden has hardly knocked on any doors in America. But Trump volunteers have knocked on over 20 million doors in battleground states. Twelve million to zero. You don't think that changes things on Election Day?
By the way, Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris had an event in Arizona on Thursday. Eight people showed up.
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Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.
"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."
Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.
Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."
I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.
The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:
Research, microtargeting & polling projects
- Over-sample Hispanics
- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
- Over-sample the Native American population
For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.
- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.
Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."
- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed