Completely agreeQuote:
Originally Posted by SL33
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Completely agreeQuote:
Originally Posted by SL33
Multiple assailants started six shootings in different parts of Vienna (Austria). One victim was killed. This is still unconfirmed but one of the shootings is said to have happened near a synagogue. One of the killers has been shot by the police, several officers were wounded. The police is out in large numbers to try and catch the perps.
At least 15 people were taken to hospital, 7 of them are severely injured. The police counterstrike is ongoing as I'm writing, a police spokeswoman says there could be more casualties.
5 dead including one terrorist, who was wearing a fake explosive belt. the situation is contained by now. The terrorist who was shot had expressed sympathy for IS. Other shooters have been captured, more arrests might follow.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal Incandenza
File under 'Russian Netflix' : https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...urope-54782634
civil war is close in Ethiopia
https://www.voanews.com/africa/ethio...defiant-region
if an all out war starts it could mean the Tirgay region declares itself independent and it could also mean that the larger region is destabilized as Ethiopia normally provides troups against muslim extremists in Somalia and acts as a peace negotiator in Sudan. these activities could come to an end in case of an all out war in Ethiopia
the Tigray region has a lot of important politicians who were at the top of the political food chain until 2018 when PM Abiy took over. Tigray has a massive amount of guns etc left from the former war against Eritrea
The Biden administration is licking its lips. The military contracts are already written, just needs a signature.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal Incandenza
the unrest in Europe over those cartoons is not quieting down any time soon. police in Belgium revealed today they arrested two terrorists over the weekend who had very advanced plans to attack a police precinct. they were probably inspired by a similar action that was carried out successfully two years ago in a town nearby (Liège) where they were going to strike. they were under 18 btw, extremely young
just to get the chronology clear, these two were arrested before the attack in Vienna (Austria) went down
The Azerbaijan-Armenia war is over, Armenia has surrendered. Azerbaijan took most of the enclave only leaving the capital and were only a few km's out. Russia basically told them to stop fighting now as Azerbaijan took all the territory which had a predominately Azeri population before the previous war in the 90's. A corridor between Karabagh's capital and Armenia will be created and also a corridor between Azerbaijan and the autonomous region of Naxcivan will be created, so the southern tip of Armenia which connects it to Iran will be Azerbaijani land now. Russian troops will be the peacekeeping force in these corridors.
Armenians are hella pissed and have raided the Presidential palace in Yerevan. So this deal could fall through from delusional Armenians in Paris and California who think they could beat the much better equipped Azeri army. Doubtful though as Daddy Putin has stepped in now. Game over.
What exactly were they fighting over again?Quote:
Originally Posted by HANZO
Purely territorial?
Basically a territory known as Nagorno-Karabagh. Armenians say they have been their since the beginning of time so it's theirs, but old man Stalin had given the territory to Azerbaijan. In 94 backed by Russia the Armenians declared war and took the area. Since then nobody has recognised the government of the region, not even Armenia as countless UN resolutions have told Armenian troops to leave the area as at the end of the day it's Azerbaijani land.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dooch
This summer some choice words by the Armenian President pissed Azerbaijan off. All hope of a diplomatic solution was lost and after Armenia killed a Azeri General they decided to take the area back by force. You had an army armed by Israel and Turkey vs one which was using equipment from the 50's and 60's.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HANZO
Why would Israel want to arm Azerbaijan? What is the reason aren't they Muslims?
Jews have been funding wars for a thousand yearsQuote:
Originally Posted by zooruka
If you still think alliances in the middle east are shaped by religion I don't know what to say.Quote:
Originally Posted by zooruka
Azerbaijan is Shia muslim to, so you'd think natural allied to Iran right? Well no. Stats show 85% of Azeri's consider themselves secular and non-practising. Azerbaijan is one of the least religious nations. Also they are the ideal nation to counter Iran. As Northern Iran is also known as Southern Azerbaijan. A 3rd of Iran's population are Turkic-speaking Azeri's. You want to destabilise Iran you need Azerbaijan on your side.
On the other hand one of the biggest supporters of Armenia in the region is Iran. At the beginning of this conflict Iran was smuggling Russian weapons to the Armenians. This stopped because the Azeri's of Northern Iran protested on mass. Their main TV Channel even aired news calling those in Tehran traitors. The Ayatollah is actually Azeri himself, this is one thing that keeps them at bay. I mean they could just ask to join Azerbaijan and I think if ever shit kicks off with Iran this will happen.
As for Armenia protestors have taken the speaker of parliament and well taken him somewhere. The Prime Minister Pashinyan has fled to Russia.
InterestingQuote:
Originally Posted by HANZO
Yeah..... this make sense in a way because there’s a big Armenian diaspora throughout the Middle EastQuote:
Originally Posted by HANZO
Really.....that’s surprising!Quote:
Originally Posted by HANZO
Thanks for the info Hanzo
peace
Turkish president Erdogan has fired his son-in-law Berat Albayrak, who was the Minister of Finance and Treasurer of Turkey. Well, technically Albayrak resigned (citing health issues and wanting to spend more time with his family) but you know how it goes ... Not too long before Erdogan had fired the chairman of the central bank of Turkey, a man called Murat Uysal
Turkey has been having problems with the devaluation of its national currency, the Turkish lira, for an extended period of time now. earlier measures taken by the government do not seem to have helped much
I read a short report that said we can now reasonably expect Erdogan to put more pressure on the central bank of Turkey and force certain decisions on it
I'm not well versed in this matter, maybe Hanzo would like to chime in and add / correct where necessary
for our American readers, the reason why I report on Turkey a lot in this thread is because it is of HUGE geopolitical importance to the EU (which it is not a member of) and NATO (which it is a member of). Erdogan has the EU in a death knel over international refugees which he could at any time open the Greek-Turkish border for (Greece being a member of the EU)
so anything that happens in Turkey is under close scrutiny here. as to Belgium, it has a largish Turkish community that sees Erdogan as its beacon of light
So this was absolutely shocking. Like nobody expected it, the son-in law is Turkey's second most powerful man. He owns the largest media corporation, he owns banks, factories, companies of all sorts. He is real good buddies with Jared Kushner to. (Not a good week for Son-in laws). He is also or was a US citizen as are most of Turkey's powerful Islamists. Oh I wonder why.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal Incandenza
So for him to quit through instagram was massive. The media which is run by lackey businessmen who feared reporting on it would draw the ire of the government didn't say shit for 26 hours. Until the gov released a statement saying Albayrak was relieved of his duties. Turkey's economy is trashed because of Erdogan's policies. He adamantly defends the idea that low interest rates lead to low inflation. So he wants the Central bank to keep lowering interest rates. The Central Bank governors who resist this call get fired by Erdogan. So you have a not so independent Central bank which the markets don't like, alongside an increasingly autocratic government. Albayrak wasn't an economist himself, he is a nobody. He is just the son of a prominent Islamist and just like feudal Europe of old, 2 powerful Islamist families in Turkey joined forces through marriage.
Before the economy was run by bankers and economists and so it was booming. They kept a tight check on money, they didn't spend and focused on building the economy. When Albayrak become more powerful and came into government he forced these economists out from government. Then had Erdogan spend spend spend and all this taxpayer money went into the pockets of those aligned with Erdogan and his son-in law. So all the money went into construction businesses. Turkey is one big concrete dump now. Build, build, build. Everywhere and any space they find they will build a high rise. in cities that do not at all need an airport, they go and build an airport. There are 4 lane highways connecting fucking villages of max 200 people. All this funded by the taxpayer and well the economic markets see it as money wasted. Which it is. The worlds largest airport, the 2nd and 3rd longest bridges and they have also begun work on Canal Istanbul which will open a second water way in Istanbul which is bonkers but they are doing it and nobody can tell them no. They don't even consult the Mayor of Istanbul on it. They don't care. As long as construction companies get richer that's all that matters. Want more context? the head of one of these construction companies is also the chairman of Turkey's soccer federation. So in essence Erdogan also runs football as they do what he says. Erdogan said he doesn't like the foreign player rule so next season there is a cap on foreign players incoming.
To save the lira what did they do? They started spending the reserve cash of the central bank but also the son-in law had 3 state banks spend their reserves to prop up the Lira as well. Why? because they didn't want the people to know the economy was weak due to excessive spending and bad policy. Populism. Instead of doing the right thing they insisted on the wrong. Since January the Central bank and 3 state banks have spent $101Billion to prop up the Lira and it failed.
To add to all this spending they also spent $40billion on Syrian refugees. The whole 'We are helping our muslim brothers' angle didn't work in Turkey, that's why opening the borders to allow them to go to Europe is a popular act the government can do to garner support at home. As it's something the left leaning opposition wants the government to do.
very illuminating, HANZO, thanks for taking the time to explain
it'll be interesting to see how Iran will react after their top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was shot. they gave him the VIP burial I see
Iran has already stockpiled ten times its enriched uranium limit. possibly Israel (via Mossad) and Trump's team, who don't want Biden to renegotiate a deal w/ Iran, made this move to provoke Iran into doing something brazen so a new nuclear treaty will become impossible
idk I'm just guessing here, also based on an analysis I read. I'm not that up to speed
any thoughts?
Joey will be more pro-Israel than Barry was. THats my guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal Incandenza
I think we can reasonably expect Biden to get more involved in the middle east anyway, but it would definitely be a Trump move to make things worse for him.
Iran is a paper tiger. They can only retaliate through proxies like Hezbollah. There are also rumours in Arabian media that a drone strike killed the head of the revolutionary guard but this has not been confirmed. Whatever is happening I'm pretty certain Trump is goading Iran into open conflict. Selling F-35's to the UAE was a major step. for the first time an Arab country will have top tier weapons, the US usually sells the Gulf states used & old tech. This is a direct threat to Iran and sooner or later they would have to react but the country just doesn't have the economic strength to react & also Covid is rampant in Iran.
Another problem Iran has now is that after Israel helped Azerbaijan in their recent war, the Azeri's have given Mossad free reign within Azerbaijan. Mossad even has a headquarters in Azerbaijan. This is why Iran has stockpiled weapons on it's border with Azerbaijan, beefing up the border.
It's really good to get an in-depth analysis of the borat countries, thanks Hanzo
Borat nations are great to follow because they are all monumental fuck ups.
The Pentagon just released a statement on the UAE funding Russian Mercenaries throughout the Middle East. A Mercenary group with direct ties to the Kremlin. Same Pentagon is getting ready to sell the UAE their mose powerful Jet Fighter. It was like the Javelin missile sold to France by the US which was then given to the UAE by France ending up in the hands of Salafists in Libya. The US came out and said the French didn't have the permission to sell the javelins on. A lot of NATO nations aren't allowed to purchase the javelin missiles.
Everyone is courting Ethiopia, so no wonder there has been issues in the Tigrey region. Ethiopia is threatening Egypt by building a dam on the Nile which will totally destroy Egyptian agriculture. So those who don't like Egypt are all good with Ethiopia, while the others are trying to cause trouble there as a warning to Ethiopia.
The Greeks have given the UAE an airbase to develop in order to ... ahem threaten Turkey. This is the middle east today. It's just one big clusterfuck.
The country which is the calmest is Borats homeland Kazakhstan. Last I checked they were trying to find a way to make the capital Astana less cold.
I'm anticipating a war between Egypt + Sudan and Ethiopia. I don't think the Tigray situation is externally influenced but the window for external support flinging wide open def gave them more confidence in facing the federal government. The Tigray used to control the country after overthrowing the Derg (communists from the 60s primarily from the south). Ironically the current president identifies more with the ethnic group that lead the Derg movement and even pardoned it's exiled leader. Since then the Tigray have been looking for reasons to show open hostility, and the pres postponing elections does the trick. Ethnic tensions are extremely high in other parts of the country and if Egypt is smart they could create complete hell for Ethiopia, but if it's open and obvious they'll all unite.
I personally think they have the right to build the dam because Egypt's Aswan dam flooded major portions of Sudan and a lot of very valueable archeology so they shouldn't act like hoes now that it's someone else. All 3 countries can fuck off though
As far as the pentagon. When I was younger I wanted to believe these types of fuck ups were deliberate long game strategy but that was me over estimating humanity. It's insane how grossly we keep mis-reading geopolitics in the US but if you meet the average American that our government pools it's talent from it's actually not far fetched.
One week before the very last deadline and a deal was finally struck between the UK and the EU over Brexit. In the end the Brits are getting back a quarter of their fishing rights over the next 5 and a half years and there's some minor tweaks in other areas. then some unneeded polishing up shit decisions where they leave a program just to start the same program under a different name, like the Erasmus exchange program for students
basically the UK has gained nothing, just stressed out its people for over 4 years and froze its own policy and decision making while all of this was going on. just so one political party could win the elections over this last time around. what else is new lol
at least in the end both the UK and the EU still have access to each other's market, so few(er) jobs will get lost than with the dreaded no deal exit
of course Boris Johnson is selling this as a victory. He had to give in to the EU on about 9 out of 10 points though. the EU doesn't want a local version of Singapore to deal with
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal Incandenza
Oh yeah here the Gov is selling this as a victory but many in the UK do not realise how much we have actually lost. The entire Brexit campaign was built on a lie and now they have to deal with the consequences. People are poorer and have less rights thanks to their ignorance and their worshipping of selfish populists.
Yeah it was a dumb move. I didn't vote as I didn't know enough about the situation at that time. Actually nobody did, they just believed propaganda.
So while the world has been watching a 3rd world country fall apart in north America apparently Israel has been bombing the shit out of Syria.
Biden administration approved. Don’t fool yourself, the US will ramp up its foreign wars now that the real power is back. They didn’t get their Syrian war when they wanted it.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Hound
The Israeli's use Syria as target practice against Russian made equipment. They got so effective at taking out Russian S-300's, it's why Azerbaijan absolutely shat all over Armenia as Russian air defence systems got picked out with ease by Israeli drones.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Hound
The issue in Syria will rise again though with the Biden administration but Syria is now Putin's playground. Not much can be done there. Putin gives countries like Turkey and Israel permission to launch attacks. If the Russians say no, it's a no in Syria.
Putin is provoking Ukraine into full on confrontation, president Zelensky is holding off since he knows what's good for him and his country
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/w...ervention.html
classic Putin Power Play
btw do yall think Navalny made a bad decision going back to Russia or do you think he's actually achieving his goal down there by damn near dying in prison?
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-...093421083.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by Hal Incandenza
Think the Ukraine's done to be honest. No way they can regain their land without full on NATO support, which isn't going to happen. The Europeans don't have the will to oppose Putin. If they did they would have brought up the Crimea at the beginning of this whole thing.
Zelinsky is looking for support but it's just not happening.
Looks like Putin is pulling back his troops from the Ukranian border, at least for now
I expect shit to go down in the Sahel now that Chad's president Idriss Déby has been killed by a bomb near the front line. He was a corrupt dictator but from a geopolitical point of view he was a stabilizing factor in the region, with his military acumen (good strategist), his well trained army (good for the Aftican UN corps) and the peace negotiations he was leading in the Central African Republic
Now both CAR and Chad might explode and IS and 'em might grow larger in the Sahel.
Macron must be pissing his pants right now. He still has 5,000 soldiers or so in the region. I wonder if he will make any moves.
The rebels are 200 to 300 km away from the Tchad capital. Macron wants to go attend the funeral. Personally I'd have said no ha.
It's wild that he died on the frontlines.
France once again failing here. I read that rebels from Libya are also helping out the rebels in Chad which means fighters backed by Russia & the UAE. Which is odd because France also backed those fighters in Libya. Now the same fighters are pushing up against a French ally. Geopolitics can be an amazing thing. Massive L for France though once again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HANZO
Ukraine is done cause they allowed ultra-right followers of Stepan Bandera (a nazi WWII puppet ) to lead volunteers and paramilitia. Majority of Ukrainians is anti-nazi, Russian speaking people who are tired of poverty and identity engineering.
Zelinsky is a professional actor who does know anything about politics.
When Zelinsky was running for president I showed an episode of his 'teacher becomes president' tv show in German class (I'd found it w/ German subs) and the kids were appalled at the hard tone and the total senselessness of the content - like how do you run a prez campaign on that? he was already in the lead in pre-elections poll at that point
this guy is fighting for his political survival right now. he got elected on a peace bill (and anticorruption) but when the numbers are down a good chunk into his turn he ups the anti Russian rhetoric to prop up his persona and following
meanwhile Putin sent troops to the border for military exercises or whatever they call them to keep Navalny's prison stint out of the news and to prop up his OWN numbers with re-election in mind
lol all of these dudes are the same but I still find it fascinating.
I gotta say Putin is one crafty bastard. he's the world's leading saboteur. any conflict he finds worthy of destabilizing a region he backs up one party on the sly
smh Singapore is so super strict on EVERYTHING. Wouldn't want to live there.