I predict a civil war in Spain come next year

[Rev Jones]

Catalonia is Spain's richest region. It has been clamoring for independence for a long time.

The regional government had put another referendum about independence on the agenda for October 1

The referendum has been deemed 'unconstitutional by federal judges, possibly under the influence of the federal government

The regional government still wants to go through with the referendum. chances of a majority for the yes to independence camp are reasonably high

The federal police seized a million referendum ballots yesterday, another 10 million today. Also today the federal police arrested 15 high ranking regional officials and the Regional Minister of Economy

All police leaves have been suspended by the federal government, as in the police has to remain on permanent call

The federal government has officially forbidden the referendum, the Catalonian Regional President has stated after the round of arrests that he will still organize the referendum

Spain has democratically elected federal and regional governments but has a relatively recent history of civil war (1930s), strict dictatorship (1940s-1970s) and failed army coups (1980s if I'm not mistaken)

It also has a recent history of terrorist attacks for regional independence by ETA, which mostly died down in the 1990s IIRC

furthermore Spain has a recent history of problems forming governments after elections (2000s), financial trouble and high youth unemployment

if the federal government does not change its stance things are likely to get out of hand

there were demonstrations by the Catalonian people in various cities today, several thousands in some of those cities

[TSA]

Nest wishes to the catalonians. We're going though the same thing in the zoo called Nigeria.

[']

The ECB plans to print up like a quarter trillion Euros before the year ends. What does this mean for Europe in general, if they continue down this path every quarter?

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/d...170907.en.html

[HANZO]

I like that they are threatening to kick Barcelona out of La Liga if this happens. The problem Spain has is that if the Catalan's can leave, the others like the Basque will want independence to. You can't just dish out land because of old European feudal borders.

the real funny referendum is tomorrow in Northern Iraq. The Kurds want independence and the Iraqis, Iranians and Turks aren't happy. Lets see how that goes.

[The Hound]

La Liga would die without Barcelona too. You're spot on about the Basque's they would want their independence 5 minutes later. Does Galicia want independence as well? The thing with Spain is that a lot of these autonomous regions and communities never bought in to the idea of Madrid/Spain like other regions did across Europe so these issues are never going to be resolved and the longer it goes on the more it goes on the more it wI'll strengthen. You wouldn't see Bavaria claim independence. I can see Spain going the way of Yugoslavia just without the big war.

Wow I didn't realise the Kurds were having a referendum. How come everyone hates them?

[Rev Jones]

La Liga would die without Barcelona too. You're spot on about the Basque's they would want their independence 5 minutes later. Does Galicia want independence as well? The thing with Spain is that a lot of these autonomous regions and communities never bought in to the idea of Madrid/Spain like other regions did across Europe so these issues are never going to be resolved and the longer it goes on the more it goes on the more it wI'll strengthen. You wouldn't see Bavaria claim independence. I can see Spain going the way of Yugoslavia just without the big war.

Wow I didn't realise the Kurds were having a referendum. How come everyone hates them?

I lived in Bavaria for just over half a year (in the late 90s). there is a historic movement of its people wanting to regain independence for their region. some people have maps of an 'independent Bavaria' up on their living room walls

an enquiry dating back to July found that out of all Bundesländer Bavaria longs for independence the most. it's still only one third of the Bavarian population though https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschl...land-sind.html (article is in German, vid shows you percentages)

Bavaria is a well off region. Just like the North of Italy striving for independence these regions think they can make it on their own because their finances are healthy

actual independence for Bavaria is not realistic though. it's in the average German's psyche to obey (it seems like a cliche but it's mostly true, especially in rural areas, as I experienced when I lived in Germany), and I don't see any evidence of a rise of the independence vote. the only thing that would be able to change this imo is if Bavaria is flooded by economic and political refugees because of the central government's policy.

btw Germany's biggest political party CDU (christian democratic union) has local party divisions in each Bundesland, except for Bavaria, where there is a separate party called CSU (christian socialist union) that makes sure Bayern's voice is heard in Berlin. as such it can act as a mitigating party (getting shit done for Bavaria in Berlin) or a possible factor in furthering the independence cause for Bavaria. in the past the CSU has threatened to cut ties with the CDU on several occasions over political friction


today there are federal elections in Germany btw

[HANZO]

Bravaria and the rest of Germany is an interesting case, but like Lee mentioned its not in the German DNA to disobey. Its more of a Mediterranean or Latin trait to disobey. Theres a certain sense of elitism in the case of the Catalonians and the Northern Italians. For them it is they who have built the country up while the 'others' spend. As these countries don't have sizeable immigrant populations to blame for the declining economic conditions, geographical differences become the primary source for them to vent their anger. Who knows what will happen but the Madrid government isn't going to let the Catalonians get what they want without a fight it seems.

As for the case with the Kurds, its not a situation where everyone hates them. This is the middle east nobody likes each other. The Kurds want their own country, their supposed borders lie in 4 different countries. The borders in the middle east are messed up, to mess it up even more will just cause another war. The situation Iraq is not that good though, I got a Iraqi Kurdish friend and he tells me that things were better when Saddam was in power. After all that shit Saddam did to them, at the end of the day there was order in the country, crime levels were low. People got paid on time and they got to eat meat on a daily basis cause it wasn't expensive and they could afford it. Now shit is out of control, so they look for an alternative. In this case the alternative will probably lead to civil war in Iraq.

[Rev Jones]

today is D-day in Catalonia

voting started at 9 o' clock but there were already huge queues from 7am onward. the Catalonian governmebt had asked people to vote as early as possible in case the federal police come and close down the voting stations in the morning

a shitload has happened over the last few days. demonstrations in Catalonia for the referendum to take place. counterdemonstrations throughout Spain wanting to keep Spain together as one country

the federal police impounded even more voting tickets. about a thousand voting offices were sealed off

the Catalonians countered this by having families with young children remain at 163 schools after classes were out on Friday. They are factually occupying the schools and using them as voting offices today. in order not to be court ordered the schools and families set up semi educational classes on the premises for the weekend, like an introduction to film school (showing a bunch of movies), yoga classes for beginners etc

also yesterday the Catalonian government decreed that voters could print their own voting ticket at home and bring it to the voting office, thus countering the police's impoundment of millions of voting tickets

the voting offices have been open for about 15 minutes now and there are no reports of incidents as of now. if any police violence should occur I think shit will definitely hit the fan

there is a scenario for when the no vote wins : the Catalonian government will retire itself and write out new regional elections

there is no clear scenario at all for when the yes vote to independence wins. nor for when the federal police stops the voting process sometime during the day

[Rev Jones]

2 hours later and I just had a look at the live feed on this situation on the national news website

shiiiit

this is not gonna end well

there have been riots

Catalonian citizens were wounded, the pics are making the rounds on social media

The federal police have stormed various voting offices. The federal authorities and police are posting pics of voting ballots they seized over the last hour

they also issued a statement blaming the whole explosive atmosphere on the Catalinian police, as 'those did not follow orders by closing voting offices in time, i.e. before the voting could take place'

also today the federal police took down the voting office where the Catalonian prez was gonna vote. he had to go find another voting office

we are VERY close to this situation getting out of control

the Spanish government is not handling this well. all of their tough talk and strict policing has been irking moderate Catalonians who were probably gonna vote no to independence and who will have changed their minds by now

the situation in Catalonia has been major news in Western European media for about a month now. especially since quite a few countries have regions tgat strive for moe ibdependence too and want to see how this turns out

[Rev Jones]

oh yeah, it's definitely beyond the point of no return now. just after finishing the post above I read that the federal police is currently shooting rubber bullets at people in Barcelona to get the demonstrating crowd to disperse

shit has officially hit the fan

[HANZO]

Well it escalated quickly. Isn't this referendum illegal according to Spanish constitution though?

This could mean Spain splitting up as we know it, which will in turn be very bad for the EU. Its like we warped back to the 1930's. Right wingers in Parliaments across Europe, separatists movements rising around the Mediterranean nations. Mass immigration from war torn areas, re-drawing of maps in the middle east. Tensions in the Pacific.

[Rev Jones]

Well it escalated quickly. Isn't this referendum illegal according to Spanish constitution though?

yes, it has been officially deemed as illegal by a judge ruling over the matter, in accordance with the national constitution

This could mean Spain splitting up as we know it, which will in turn be very bad for the EU. Its like we warped back to the 1930's. Right wingers in Parliaments across Europe, separatists movements rising around the Mediterranean nations. Mass immigration from war torn areas, re-drawing of maps in the middle east. Tensions in the Pacific.

I agree with your analysis.

300 citizens and 11 police officers injured so far as I write this post

if a citizen dies chances are the Spanish PM Rajoy will be under pressure to step down and the search for a new PM might be on

the mayor of Barcelona has already asked for the PM to leave office after today's events

[Dooch]

i bet one day New York City wants to do this.

[HANZO]

The Barcelona - Las Palmas game should be interesting today. Las Palmas will wear a spanish flag on their jersey as a sign of 'unity'. Barcelona wanted the game to be postponed but that aint happening.

This whole thing can be a catalyst for other big cities in the world. Unlike the Scottish referendum this has a different impact, as most people are unaware of the history of Spain and Catalonia. So on paper it just looks like a chunk of Spain doesn't want to be part of Spain but turn themselves into a Singapore style city state. This promise of being closed to foreigners along with extreme wealth seems enticing to many big cities.

[Rame]

FC Barcelona to join the Premier League?