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Thread: News from around the world

  1. #1

    Default News from around the world

    The biggest news in Europe and Russia for abot two months now has not been EU policy, refugees, Brexit, or the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Navalny. It's been the recent uprising in the dictatoria state of Belarus and its large geopolitican conseqences.





    Belarus president Lukashenko pleading for troops and assistance with a laidback in control Putin on September 14. Notice the body language of both presidents.





    For 26 years Belarus president Lukashenko has been in office as the last dictator of Europe. All elections were rigged. Lukashenko, formerly the manager of a communist farming cooperation rose to power after the USSR fell. At first his reforms were fairly successful and he was well liked by the voters. This changed dramatically over time.


    In the weeks leading up to this year's election there were mass protests in the streets in the big cities for the first time. Opposition candidates for various parties had been imprisoned or slapped with lawsuits. In the end the oppositon and the voters rallied around the wife of one of the opposition leaders (who himself had been taken out of the political game by Lukashenko). This housewife, with no previous experience in politics, led the mass protests.


    Journalists and protestors (all protest were peaceful) were jailed, protestors were also tortured in jail. State owned factory workers were forced to vote Lukashenko or they would lose their jobs. Additional large scale voter fraud happened during election day.


    In the end Lukashenko won and the few remaining opposition leaders were imprisoned, kidnapped never to been again, or forced to leave the country.


    Why does all of this matter? Lukashenko's reign has survived international geopolitical powerplay because he kept a balance between the EU and Russia.


    When Lukashenko came to power he signed an integration treaty with Russia under its weak president Jeltsin (basically a drunkard), in the hopes of Lukashenko himself becoming the leader of that Russia-Belarus union. We're talking about a customs and trade union here with an essentially joint military force as well.


    But when Putin came to power Lukashenko knew the jig was up as Putin had a much stronger grip on things and Lukashenko would be the junior partner, merely a puppet 'leader' in charge of a Russian province nominally known as 'the country' Belarus. Therefore Lukashenko never kept to his end of the Integration Deal, causing lasting friction between Russia and Belarus and in effect making Belarus a large bumper state between the EU and Russia.


    The EU was only too glad not to interfere with the dictatorial regime in Belarus.


    Mind you, all of this is connected to oil pipelines as well from Russia leading to the EU via various routes.


    Now that mass protests were happening in July, August and September, leading up to the Belarus elections, it looked like Lukashenko would be overthrown. He was summoned to Russia by Putin to finally make the Integration Deal happen. In return Russian troops were stationed at the Belarus-Russian border, unofficial Russian government agents were sent into Belarus to help contain the protests and Russian journalists took over Belarus media.


    And so Ptin has once again shifted geopolitical relations in his favor and now looms larger than ever over the European continent. Belarus' neigboring countries like Poland, Lithuania and Estonia feel threatened, especially since all of them were at a recent point in history ruled by the USSR.


    After recently annexing part of Ukrain, waging war in another part of Ukrain and after past wars with Georgia and other countries and regions near Russua Putin has steadily tightened his grip on the larger region.


    With the ice melting near the North Pole he is also looking at new ship routes for both trading and military reasons (e.g. far reaching missile launch platforms on ships)


    At the same time Putin has to stay ahead of the internal power struggle in Russia with the opposition coming up wth a nifty system of voter advice for people in local elections (pointing voters to nationalist parties etc that are not friends with the democratic opposition at all but which are also NOT under Putin's influence, making Putin lose power îthe Russian parliament by consequence) and mass protests in the eastern provinve of Chabarovsk that have lasted for three months now as the uncooperative province leader who did not want to take orders from Putin (and was hugely popular with the locals) was replaced with a Putin lackey
    Last edited by Rev Jones; 09-30-2020 at 02:30 AM.

  2. #2
    Hanovallah HANZO's Avatar
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    Putin has completely outplayed just about everyone who went up against him. He has made the Europeans look absolutely foolish. All this while the Russian economy is trash. He is using political whit, Russian military might and capitalised off European weakness & American withdrawal.

    Europe couldn't even come together and sanction Lukashenko & other officials in Belarus.

  3. #3

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    I wonder how Putin will handle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that has recently flared up again (it originally started in 1988 and has had its periods of serious conflict and downtime)


    Nagorno-Karabakh is a sizable mountainous region on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. it officially belongs to Azerbaijan but is occupied by Armenia





    in geopolitical terms this conflict could well become dynamite for the Caucasus region, which Russia claims to have influence/control over


    since Armenia and Russia are Christian orthodox they have had a natural alliance for years. the same can be said of Azerbaijan and Turkey, where Muslims live (I'm of course discussing majority groups here)


    at the same time Putin has a good working relationship with the Azerbaijan government in capital Baku, with steady weapon sales from Russia to Azerbaijan that rake in a lot of cash for Putin. In other words : Putin's been having it both ways.


    if tensions continue to flare up and more soldiers and civilians get killed, as has kind of suddenly happened this week, Turkey and Russia might be on a collision course because of its allies, although I think both Russia and Turkey will try to avoid this. Note that the OSCE Minsk Group (Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe) that has been working on a peaceful solution for the region for years now is co-chaired by France, Russia and the US. Turkey is not on board.

    https://www.osce.org/mg


    I think Putin will try to de-escalate the situation since that would benefit Russia most. in that respect it mostly depends on Russia's ally Armenia's reaction to the conflict as it should be easier to control that than Azerbaijan's stance


    notice on the map how Armenia is sandwiched between Azerbaijan partly on both sides and Turkey
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    Hanovallah HANZO's Avatar
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    Basically with Karabagh in July I believe they began shelling each other again which isn't something new but what was new was that Armenia shelled a region to the north where the TAP gasline went through. This gasline takes Azeri gas from it's massive gas fields through Georgia into Turkey then onto Europe. It's a huge rival to the Nord Stream pipeline which is causing friction between Germany and the US. As the Nord Stream takes Russian gas to Europe.

    This obviously pissed off a lot of people. So it heightened Azerbaijan and Turkey's push to protect the pipeline and the best way to do it is remove Armenian forces from that area. Now it seems like the Azeri's are winning quite easily so they might just go ahead and re-conquer/liberate Karabagh once and for all. Putin weirdly hasn't said a thing so far, apart from the usual 'plz don't fight'. Another odd angle is that Iran is sending trucks full of weapons to Armenia, which pissed of Azeri Turks who live in Northern Iran (which they call south Azerbaijan). There was even this televised address on the main Azeri Turkish channel in Iran calling those in Tehran 'traitors'. That's another thing many don't know but Northern Iran with the right push would just leave Iran and join Azerbaijan. That's why to Israel Azerbaijan is quite a crucial nation because they have the best asset to fuck up Iran.

    Make no mistake both Armenia and Azerbaijan are fucking poor puppets of Moscow though. All that Azeri gas money flows into the pockets of Aliyev and his family. His daughters own the most expensive houses in London, the people themselves live in poverty. Armenia is just one big village, they look over the border see a mountain in Turkey and masturbate over it with dreams that one day they will reconquer Anatolia. I don't know how they plan to do that. That's why Turkey can't be part of the Minsk group (neither can France but are somehow). They haven't fixed anything in 30 years so it's kinda normal that Azerbaijan just said 'fuck it'. It will go on until Putin really stamps his foot down but I think he will let Azerbaijan capture 30-40% of Karabagh until he tells them to stop. Will Aliyev listen is another story, normally yes but even I didn't expect him to receive so much support from Israel and the Jewish lobby in the US.

    Turkeys links to Azerbaijan isn't just religious. Azeris infact are the least religious Muslim majority nation, like 85% do not practice at all and do not like Turkey meddling too much or investing too much in Azerbaijan. Because Erdogan brings his horde of Imam's everywhere he goes. Azeri's are very wary of that and it's known from leaked cables that Aliyev doesn't like Erdogan because he is an Islamist. However both nations are bound by blood, same language, history etc etc. So they can't have a policy where one doesn't support the other. and by the way Erdogan would lose another election in Turkey but because of idiots like Biden and Macron openly saying 'we need to remove Erdogan'. He has gained back the support he lost.

  5. #5

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    That was very informative, you have given me a much clearer view of the geopolitical situation. Thanks! The media here unfortunately only report on Karabakh fleetingly and certainly not as in depth as you have just now. Thank you for putting in the time.

    Israel's support of Azerbijan was completely new to me for example.
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    Hungry Hyena From Medina SL33's Avatar
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    Aliyev bought israeli drones and lots of hi-tech weaponry and Azerbaijan being more populous will make this an easy win.

    Russia will not send its army over there (though Russians do have a base in Armenia) - Azerbaijan is strategically more important to Moscow. Armenians have a strong lobby in Moscow, Paris and Washington though.




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    Quote Originally Posted by Hal Incandenza View Post


    At the same time Putin has to stay ahead of the internal power struggle in Russia with the opposition coming up wth a nifty system of voter advice for people in local elections (pointing voters to nationalist parties etc that are not friends with the democratic opposition at all but which are also NOT under Putin's influence, making Putin lose power îthe Russian parliament by consequence) and mass protests in the eastern provinve of Chabarovsk that have lasted for three months now as the uncooperative province leader who did not want to take orders from Putin (and was hugely popular with the locals) was replaced with a Putin lackey

    Be assured that Putin has no rival in Russia. It's funny how some think that the likes of Alexei Navalny and some other ppl can actually come close to Putin in any way. There is no power struggle. The real power struggle will occur when he dies. Same can be said for Erdogan.




  8. #8

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    You are absolutely spot on, 'power struggle' was much too strong a word

    Putin's grip on Russia is iron tight.

    He has not made one concession to the Chabarovsk province. The place is so far away from Moscow anyway it can't hurt him.
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    Hanovallah HANZO's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SL33 View Post
    Be assured that Putin has no rival in Russia. It's funny how some think that the likes of Alexei Navalny and some other ppl can actually come close to Putin in any way. There is no power struggle. The real power struggle will occur when he dies. Same can be said for Erdogan.
    Putin yeah because elections aren't really free in Russia but also Russian's do not have a history of democracy. One Russian told me 'don't compare Russia to Europe. many Russians just want stability they couldn't give a shit about freedom of press, human rights etc etc'. Putin owns shit though, most powerful leader easily.

    Erdogan is a different case though. Old Turks are like Russians but the population is young and they all feel the choke hold Erdogan has on them. He lost hard in the last local elections and polls show his approval rating being around 40% which is his core vote. He only exceeds 50 because of his alliance with nationalists. The next general elections are in 2023, 5million new voters will register and 75% of Gen Z say they will never vote Erdogan. Gen Z in Turkey is quite liberal, secular, deist and many things Erdogan doesn't like. They think different politically to, they don't care for Palestine for example and are much more pro-Israel. Nationalistic to but in a different manner, more pro-Turkish instead of pro-Islam.

    They are also incredibly supportive of both the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara & polls show that if either go up against Erdogan in an election they will win. Those are the only two who can beat him though, it's really up to the opposition in Turkey not to fuck it up but the opposition is so bad and are so disturbed by the popularity of the Mayors they might just choose someone else to go up against Erdogan. Erdogan's success is also thanks to how utterly bad the opposition in Turkey has been in the past 2 decades.

    Erdogan's the weakest his ever been, the economy has been trashed by bad policy, daft projects and his incapable son-in law but what doesn't help is when Macron or Biden say Turkey needs regime change. That pisses off everyone in Turkey and Erdogan claws back some of that lost support. Germany solved this issue, they don't comment on Erdogan anymore. Which is smart and the best way to prop up the opposition in Turkey and help them beat Erdogan. Macron though is just fucking that up and aiding Erdogan with his approach.

  10. #10

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    sometimes I feel like Macron is just inflating his ego going around the world flaunting his moral high ground


    it is a plus that he cares a lot about international relations (don't they all, though, those world leaders) but with him it often looks like PR and with his legacy in mind, i.e. how Western history will look back upon him later on


    I also get the feeling that Macron feels more at ease on the international stage than on the national stage


    that's right, these are just things I 'feel', I sort of don't have a lot to really back it up. I wonder how most of the French rate their leader these days. he's had a hard time after the honeymoon days, but then again large strikes (and demonstrations) are a fact of life in France, and they sure have the democratic right of the French to put those to use


    I know there is friction between Merkel and Macron (on Merkel's side) for some of his 'solo slim' plays on the international stage. on the other hand, the Merkel-Macron German/French axis is embedded nicely in the recent tradition of efficient and even cordial working relationship between the heads of state of both countries since the blossoming of the Helmut Kohl-François Mitterand relationship
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    Quote Originally Posted by HANZO View Post
    Putin yeah because elections aren't really free in Russia but also Russian's do not have a history of democracy. One Russian told me 'don't compare Russia to Europe. many Russians just want stability they couldn't give a shit about freedom of press, human rights etc etc'. Putin owns shit though, most powerful leader easily.

    Erdogan is a different case though. Old Turks are like Russians but the population is young and they all feel the choke hold Erdogan has on them. He lost hard in the last local elections and polls show his approval rating being around 40% which is his core vote. He only exceeds 50 because of his alliance with nationalists. The next general elections are in 2023, 5million new voters will register and 75% of Gen Z say they will never vote Erdogan. Gen Z in Turkey is quite liberal, secular, deist and many things Erdogan doesn't like. They think different politically to, they don't care for Palestine for example and are much more pro-Israel. Nationalistic to but in a different manner, more pro-Turkish instead of pro-Islam.

    They are also incredibly supportive of both the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara & polls show that if either go up against Erdogan in an election they will win. Those are the only two who can beat him though, it's really up to the opposition in Turkey not to fuck it up but the opposition is so bad and are so disturbed by the popularity of the Mayors they might just choose someone else to go up against Erdogan. Erdogan's success is also thanks to how utterly bad the opposition in Turkey has been in the past 2 decades.

    Erdogan's the weakest his ever been, the economy has been trashed by bad policy, daft projects and his incapable son-in law but what doesn't help is when Macron or Biden say Turkey needs regime change. That pisses off everyone in Turkey and Erdogan claws back some of that lost support. Germany solved this issue, they don't comment on Erdogan anymore. Which is smart and the best way to prop up the opposition in Turkey and help them beat Erdogan. Macron though is just fucking that up and aiding Erdogan with his approach.
    As someone of Turkish ethnicity, what are you thoughts on Gen Z’s views?

    If you were living In Turkey would you align with them, Ergodan or maybe lie somewhere else?

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hal Incandenza View Post
    Putin's grip on Russia is iron tight.
    I don’t totally agree with that!

    I believe Putin is more of a figurehead. He seems like a nice guy but I believe if he doesn’t tow the line, he would probably end up dead floating in a river somewhere?

  13. #13

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    Zooruka, I respect you but I absolutely have to disagree with you on this one. Back in the Jeltsin days oligarchs were the de facto rulers in Russia. They had bought large state companies and privatized them, had sold off a lot of stuff too and became amazingly rich. Think of oil and gas too. With that money came poltical power and influence as well.

    When Putin rose to power these oligarchs thought they could make deals with Putin and use him like a figurehead like they had sort of done with Jeltsin.

    However, over the years Putin has driven most of these men away from power and/or riches through trials, jail time etc. There were about 6 to 7 really big oligarchs back in the Jeltsin days. About two of them are still 'in power', be it that they still own their fortune BUT have to do what Putin says.

    Putin was underestimated in Russia by the powers that be initially and that was their fatal mistake.

    Make no mistake about it, there are still a lot of wealthy and powerful people around Putin but 80% of them came up during the Putin reign and are therefore loyal to him. They depend on him, not the other way around.
    Last edited by Rev Jones; 10-02-2020 at 09:18 AM.
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  14. #14

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    Also, Putin might portray the image of a nice guy somewhat in international media on a personal level but I reckon somebody like that, with his tactics and powerplay, is a cold hearted SOB. His main goals seem to be the restoration to former glory of the USSR (without communism, but in terms of land and of power hold in the larger region) and absolute personal power.
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  15. #15

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    Props on the reply Hal!

    Interesting....Maybe I have the wrong idea about Putin, I’m not sure, as I’m not to familiar with the inner workings of Europe and/or European politics? But I view Russia as a gangsta state with basically no rule of law when it comes to power (It’s like Wu tang’s killa bee law: kill or be killed) that’s how I view Russian politics?

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